Glen Miller: Analyzing Umberger's Regression Using Advanced Stats

Glen Miller: Analyzing Umberger's Regression Using Advanced Stats
- Glen Miller

Advanced (?????) stats? Meaningless stats would be a more accurate term. Simply put: Umberger has had 2 less than average years; he may be on the decline. One doesn't need any stats to see (and understand) that.

Advanced (?????) stats? Meaningless stats would be a more accurate term. Simply put: Umberger has had 2 less than average years; he may be on the decline. One doesn't need any stats to see (and understand) that.
- rdfred

If advanced stats were meaningless then NHL teams would not be using them. I know for a fact that Calgary, Tampa and LA, among others, all have advanced stats staff on their payroll.

And Umberger has had one down year, last year, and is eight games into this season. I don't know where you see two down years unless eight games constitutes a full season.

What fans like you don't seem to understand is that advanced stats aren't meant to replace traditional evaluation methods like scouting. It's designed to provide information previously unavailable and to provide another context with which to view current stats.

I for one do not sit in front of a computer looking at advanced stats and think I know something about the sport. I watch a lot of hockey. If I think advanced stats make sense with what I know of the game then I use them. Thankfully my mind is open to new possibilities.

What it tells you is, once someones gets a good pay day, they relax and generally aren't as productive happens all the time to lots of players.

What it tells you is, once someones gets a good pay day, they relax and generally aren't as productive happens all the time to lots of players.
- MikeyOz

That might be an accurate statement but how many Columbus games have you watched in the last year plus and how closely did you watch Umberger in those games? It doesn't seem fair to question a player's effort if you have only watched a few games. I'm not saying his effort has been at an especially high level but I will say that I am going to start paying more attention to him before saying one way or the other about his effort.

Who's playing 1-2-3 down the middle for the Jackets? Is cheeseburger playing LW?

Who's playing 1-2-3 down the middle for the Jackets? Is cheeseburger playing LW?
- LeftCoaster

Anisimov and Dubinsky have been getting the bulk of the minutes at C. Umberger has played some LW on AA's line but has also played some C with Brassard. Richards is shuffling the deck looking for some combos to generate offense. Mackenzie, Calvert, JAM and even Prospal have all played some at C in the last three games.

Anisimov and Dubinsky have been getting the bulk of the minutes at C. Umberger has played some LW on AA's line but has also played some C with Brassard. Richards is shuffling the deck looking for some combos to generate offense. Mackenzie, Calvert, JAM and even Prospal have all played some at C in the last three games.
- Glen Miller

Wow that a lot of juggling

Glen, I hate to ask you this question on a hockey site, but I am just curious, who do you think should have won the American League MVP last year -- Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout? I only ask because it has been a hot topic of debate amongst a group of friends, who tend to break depending on their views of advanced statistics.

Glen, I hate to ask you this question on a hockey site, but I am just curious, who do you think should have won the American League MVP last year -- Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout? I only ask because it has been a hot topic of debate amongst a group of friends, who tend to break depending on their views of advanced statistics.
- Pete V

Clearly Glen's a Trout-man!

And nice read. Keep up the advanced stats, it's great to see some of that around here.

Clearly Glen's a Trout-man!

And nice read. Keep up the advanced stats, it's great to see some of that around here.
- LoserSince61

I'm still looking for one advanced stats guys to say Cabrera. I think I have a better shot of finding Jimmy Hoffa's body.

Glen, I hate to ask you this question on a hockey site, but I am just curious, who do you think should have won the American League MVP last year -- Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout? I only ask because it has been a hot topic of debate amongst a group of friends, who tend to break depending on their views of advanced statistics.
- Pete V

Actually I gave the slight edge to Cabrera. In fact, I used the statistical improbability of winning the triple crown as my logic in giving the award to a guy that the stat guys didn't think should win. Go figure.

I love Trout as a player and certainly understand how his defensive abilities and baserunning make him more valuable than Cabrera. However, since defense is the most difficult part of baseball to quantify accurately I put less credence in those numbers than others.

I also found a few examples of players about Trout's age putting up statistically similar seasons. Bonds and A-Rod I believe both had seasons of 30-30 in their early twenties.

Now until Cabrera, no one in MLB won a triple crown in 40+ years.

It was a difficult choice. I wanted to go with Trout but when I laid out all of the arguments on paper I ended up leaning toward Cabrera. Weird, I know.

Clearly Glen's a Trout-man!

And nice read. Keep up the advanced stats, it's great to see some of that around here.
- LoserSince61

Thank you. I plan to inject some of the advanced stats into my blogs here. I appreciate the compliment and the read.

Glen Miller: Analyzing Umberger's Regression Using Advanced Stats
- Glen Miller

The thing killing me about RJ this year is he can't seem to complete a decent pass not handle the puck and keep it away from the defense. The lockout rust excuse is about done. I think he needs to be put on a third line at this point.

The thing killing me about RJ this year is he can't seem to complete a decent pass not handle the puck and keep it away from the defense. The lockout rust excuse is about done. I think he needs to be put on a third line at this point.
- bjacket

Yeah, he needs to get his game on track. I do get that it might be hard with all the new blood in the lineup. AA, Dubi and Foligno are all skating in top-9 slots and it can definitely be difficult to find line combos that mesh. Still, eight games in and one helper? That's just not good enough.

If advanced stats were meaningless then NHL teams would not be using them. I know for a fact that Calgary, Tampa and LA, among others, all have advanced stats staff on their payroll.

And Umberger has had one down year, last year, and is eight games into this season. I don't know where you see two down years unless eight games constitutes a full season.

What fans like you don't seem to understand is that advanced stats aren't meant to replace traditional evaluation methods like scouting. It's designed to provide information previously unavailable and to provide another context with which to view current stats.

I for one do not sit in front of a computer looking at advanced stats and think I know something about the sport. I watch a lot of hockey. If I think advanced stats make sense with what I know of the game then I use them. Thankfully my mind is open to new possibilities.
- Glen Miller

So because I see no positive use in those particular stats my mind is not open to new possibilities. Thanks for treating me seriously. Could it be that I have studied their impact (sic!) -- starting with baseball -- and found them lacking? No, I just don't have an open mind. Classy. That would be like me saying to you that you are stupid for believing them -- simply because I don't. Follow that up with the old "fans like you" routine and I've had enough. You're insulting, arrogant, and ultimately not worth responding to any more.

Glen Miller: Analyzing Umberger's Regression Using Advanced Stats
- Glen Miller

Great analysis, Glen! I'm a big fan of advanced stats, obviously they aren't perfect and hockey isn't like baseball but they can tell u a lot about a player in most cases. Most people assume it's just Corsi, which it clearly isn't.

So because I see no positive use in those particular stats my mind is not open to new possibilities. Thanks for treating me seriously. Could it be that I have studied their impact (sic!) -- starting with baseball -- and found them lacking? No, I just don't have an open mind. Classy. That would be like me saying to you that you are stupid for believing them -- simply because I don't. Follow that up with the old "fans like you" routine and I've had enough. You're insulting, arrogant, and ultimately not worth responding to any more.
- rdfred

Point taken. But by the same token I've dealt with many fans that dismiss advanced stats outright and have no interest in actually learning about them or debating their merit. In your original comment you didn't get into specifics and I assumed you were one of those fans. If you want to tell me why you find no value in any of the metrics I used I am willing to debate.

Just as you imply I was being unfair with you, aren't you being worse by actually resorting to insulting my character? If you knew me personally or took the time to interact with me more here I'd be willing to bet you wouldn't think I was arrogant. And I apologize if you were insulted; I didn't mean to insult you but I'm sure you can understand why I jumped the gun a bit given your first response.

If you don't want to respond, fine. I never called you stupid nor directly said you were closed-minded. I used that as a generality and not specifically directed at you.

Great analysis, Glen! I'm a big fan of advanced stats, obviously they aren't perfect and hockey isn't like baseball but they can tell u a lot about a player in most cases. Most people assume it's just Corsi, which it clearly isn't.
- Nucker101

Thank you. Yes, hockey is a lot different and more difficult to quantify than baseball. It's getting better though and the stats more refined as people begin to understand what to try to quantify.

If advanced stats were meaningless then NHL teams would not be using them. I know for a fact that Calgary, Tampa and LA, among others, all have advanced stats staff on their payroll.


- Glen Miller

Moneypuck?

I just think Umberger has no business being a '' go to guy'' , and I think the current coaching staff and front office are evaluating him as being that kind of player, i'm pretty sure if he played on the 2nd or 3rd line in a more defensive role the points would start coming in.

Moneypuck?

I just think Umberger has no business being a '' go to guy'' , and I think the current coaching staff and front office are evaluating him as being that kind of player, i'm pretty sure if he played on the 2nd or 3rd line in a more defensive role the points would start coming in.
- Alexzanki

Unfortunately when they gave him $4.6MM they basically said he was one of their go-to guys. In fact, with Nash gone he is the team's highest paid forward. Hard to pay a third-line guy that much s he'll need to produce and play better in a top-six role.

Artie and Wis with goals, CBJ up 2 - 1. Liking that.

Unfortunately when they gave him $4.6MM they basically said he was one of their go-to guys. In fact, with Nash gone he is the team's highest paid forward. Hard to pay a third-line guy that much s he'll need to produce and play better in a top-six role.
- Glen Miller

Agreed a compliance buyout might settle that though .

Btw any news on Wiz....poor guy.

Agreed a compliance buyout might settle that though .

Btw any news on Wiz....poor guy.
- Alexzanki

Saying upper body injury and won't return. We'll see.
Edit: Sweet, AA with his second!!!! 3 - 1 CBJ!!!!

Would a Hemsky 4 Umberber trade interest you guys?

Hemsky is playing well again but we need a guy with some size on that line.